每个星期，美国联邦储备委员会都要公布一次10天前那一周的货币供给增长率（这里存在一个10天的时滞是因为美联

每个星期，美国联邦储备委员会都要公布一次10天前那一周的货币供给增长率(这里存在一个10天的时滞是因为美联储需要这段时间收集有关的数据)。经济学家注意到，如果货币供给增长率大于预期水平的话，名义利率将上升；相反，如果货币供给增长率低于预期水平，名义利率将下降。对此存在着两种解释：(1) 原先没有预期到的高货币增长率会提高对未来通货膨胀率的预期，并通过费雪效应相应地提高名义利率；(2) 未预计到的高货币增长率会使得市场认为美联储将采取行动减少货币供给，造成银行信贷减少，但是不会对预期通货膨胀产生影响。你能否运用外汇市场的有关数据对这两种解释进行评价(答案可参见本章参考文献中Engel and Frankel的论文)。

Every week the Federal Reserve announces how quickly the money supply grew in the week ending ten days previously．(There is a ten-day delay because it takes that long to assemble data on bank deposits.)Economists have noticed that when the announced increase in the money supply is greater than expected，nominal interest ratesrisejust after the announcement；they fallwhen the market learns the money supply grew more slowly than expected．Two competing explanations of this phenomenon are (1) unexpectedly high money growth raises expected inflation and thus raises nominal interest rates through the Fisher effect；and (2) unexpectedly high money growth leads the market to expect future Fed action to reduce the money supply，causing a decrease in the amount of deposits supplied to the public by banks but no increase in expected inflation．How would you use data from the foreign exchange market to decide between these two hypotheses？ (For an answer，see the paper by Engel and Frankel in Further Reading.)